From how I imagine the demographics breaking down, I think that the competition is Melanie's to lose. (Obviously, I'm reducing the complexities of who votes for what into gross generalities, but it's useful for making points.) I doubt that she shares that many voters with Sasha, so the scenario where the two of them split enough votes for Marko to win seems fairly remote. The real question is how Marko and Sasha are going to finish (Tadd seems destined for fourth).
Now then, prove me wrong, Ameriker.